An example of financial analysis for individuals. Analysis of the financial condition of an individual (individual). Who is a financial manager
Financial analysis in bankruptcy
In accordance with Art. 24 of the Law, the Arbitration Manager is obliged:
1. Analyze the financial condition of the debtor (the purpose of such analysis is to answer the question about the possibility of restoring solvency).
2. Analyze the financial, economic, investment activities of the debtor, its position in commodity and other markets (this is necessary to answer the question about the application of a certain procedure and specific measures within the framework of this procedure).
Chapter 4 of the Law establishes that the purpose of surveillance applied to the debtor is to preserve his property and carry out analysis financial condition, compiling a register of creditors' claims, holding the first meeting of creditors. These goals serve to achieve the most important goal - to determine the future fate of the debtor and accordingly choose the procedure applied to him within the framework of the bankruptcy process (financial recovery, external management, bankruptcy proceedings, settlement agreement).
Art. 70 Analysis of the financial condition of the debtor. An analysis of the debtor's financial condition is carried out in order to determine the value of the property owned by the debtor to cover legal costs, the cost of paying remuneration to the arbitration manager, as well as to determine the possibility or impossibility of restoring the debtor's solvency in the manner and within the time limits established by this Federal Law.
Article 129 of the Law also obliges the bankruptcy trustee to conduct a financial analysis.
Financial analysis in case of bankruptcy of an enterprise is carried out on the basis of the following regulations:
- Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 257 of May 29, 2004 “On ensuring the interests of the Russian Federation in bankruptcy cases..”
- Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 27, 2004 N 855 “On approval of the Temporary Rules for checking by an arbitration manager for signs of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy”
2) Sources of data for analyzing the financial condition of the debtor enterprise (bankrupt):
In accordance with the financial analysis of a bankrupt enterprise, it is carried out on the basis of:
a) statistical reporting, accounting and tax reporting, accounting registers and tax accounting, as well as (if available) materials audit and appraisers' reports;
b) constituent documents, protocols general meetings participants of the organization, meetings of the board of directors, register of shareholders, contracts, plans, estimates, calculations;
c) provisions on accounting policy, including accounting policies for tax purposes, working chart of accounts accounting, document flow diagrams and organizational and production structures;
d) reporting of branches, subsidiaries and dependents business entities, structural divisions;
e) materials tax audits and litigation;
f) normative legal acts regulating the activities of the debtor.
3. Goals financial analysis bankrupt enterprise
In accordance with the law, a financial analysis of the debtor’s condition is carried out with the aim of:
Calculation of financial- economic activity debtor;
Finding the cause of loss of solvency;
Analysis of the debtor's assets and liabilities;
Identification of signs of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy;
Forming a conclusion about the possibility (impossibility) of restoring the debtor’s solvency;
Forming a conclusion on the advisability of introducing the appropriate bankruptcy procedure;
Forming a conclusion about the possibility (impossibility) of covering legal costs.
4) Analysis of the financial condition of a bankrupt enterprise
Financial condition is the most important characteristic business activity and reliability of the enterprise. It is determined by the property at the disposal of the enterprise and the sources of its financing.
Financial condition analysis is carried out on the basis balance sheet and a profit and loss statement, the data of which can be adjusted in accordance with additional information received (Appraisers’ reports, information from appendices to the balance sheet, etc.)
4.1. Analysis of the composition and structure of the balance sheet asset
Balance sheet currency analysis. The structure and dynamics of its main components in assets.
4.2. Analysis of the composition and structure of the balance sheet liabilities
Analysis of the structure of sources of financing the company's activities. In structure and dynamics
4.3. Analysis of financial results
The source of information here is the profit and loss statement. This section analyzes such indicators as net revenue, operating profit, income from various types of activities, etc.
4.4. Financial indicators
Indicators of liquidity, capital structure, profitability, and business activity are analyzed.
4.5. Main conclusions
The section summarizes the most significant results of the analysis.
5) Other analytical procedures, provided for by law for bankrupt enterprises
5.1. Analysis of the possibility (impossibility) of restoring the debtor’s solvency
Sign fictitious bankruptcy is the ability of the enterprise at the time of filing an application to the Arbitration Court to answer for its obligations. A sign of deliberate bankruptcy is the presence at the enterprise of a tendency towards a decrease in net assets and a decrease in the ratio between assets and liabilities over a number of periods.
5.2. Analysis of the possibility (impossibility) of restoring the debtor’s solvency
Here the coefficient of restoration (loss) of solvency is calculated. And the risk of a bankrupt enterprise to restore solvency in the near future or to lose it is assessed.
5.3. Conclusion on the advisability of introducing an appropriate bankruptcy procedure
Based expert assessments and using the data obtained during the analysis process, a conclusion is made about the need to introduce some kind of bankruptcy procedure at the enterprise.
5.4. Conclusion on the possibility (impossibility) of covering legal costs
Based on the data obtained during the analysis of the financial condition of the bankrupt enterprise, a conclusion is made about whether the enterprise will be able to cover legal costs related to bankruptcy proceedings.
s. E. KOVAN Candidate of Technical Sciences Sciences, Professor of the Department of Economics and Crisis Management, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "Financial University under the Government" Russian Federation" Author of scientific monographs, teaching aids and articles on the problems of crisis management.
Participated in research work carried out by the Financial University in the interests of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the Department of Science and Industry of Moscow and other institutions and organizations. Accredited by the Association “Interregional Self-Regulatory Organization of Professional Arbitration Managers” as a person carrying out consulting activities during bankruptcy procedures of organizations. area of scientific interests is the theory and practice of anti-crisis management of socio-economic systems, financial recovery and bankruptcy prevention.
sergey. [email protected]
Currently, in anti-crisis management, there has been a need to develop a methodology for analyzing the financial condition of persons who do not maintain standard accounting records. This article develops such a technique and provides examples of its application. The technique can be used to analyze the financial condition of citizens in respect of whom a bankruptcy case is being considered.
arbitration manager, bankruptcy of a citizen, accounting reporting, bankruptcy procedure, financial analysis.
financial
state
citizen
procedures
bankruptcy
Introduction
Conducting a financial analysis of economic entities is a necessary element of making informed management decisions in relation to these entities. The results of financial analysis are used both by internal users (owners, managers) in order to develop and carry out actions adequate to the prevailing circumstances, and by external users (suppliers, consumers, banks, etc.) to make decisions on how and on what scale to build their relationship with this business entity.
In cases where an economic entity is in a pre-crisis or crisis situation, the role of financial analysis increases many times; it is used for the purpose of timely identification negative factors development, helps to understand the causes of crisis phenomena that have arisen, as well as assess the possibilities of applying various anti-crisis measures.
If the object of analysis is an organization that maintains accounting records and prepares regular financial statements, including a balance sheet, financial statement
results and appendices to them [Order 2010, paragraph 3], proven analysis techniques are used, described in many books and articles (see, for example: [Analysis, 2007, Kovalev V.V., Kovalev Vit. V., 2012, Kovan S.E., 2009]).
In bankruptcy procedures for organizations, financial analysis is one of the basic responsibilities of the arbitration manager [ the federal law 2002, art. 20.3, 70]. In 2003, “Rules for conducting... financial analysis” [Resolution 2003] were developed, which established a methodology that included the main directions of financial analysis:
Analysis of financial indicators and ratios;
Analysis of assets and liabilities;
Analysis of economic, investment and financial activities, position of the subject of analysis in commodity and other markets;
Analysis of the ability to carry out break-even activities.
the main task financial analysis in bankruptcy procedures is to identify the possibility or impossibility of restoring the solvency of a crisis economy.
mic entity and justify the choice of the most appropriate bankruptcy procedure.
The main source data for the analysis is the financial statements of the subject of analysis, from which indicators and ratios are calculated, and a study of assets and liabilities is carried out. The “Rules...” under consideration were developed primarily for organizations in the real sector of the economy - industrial, construction, transport, etc., in which by that time significant practical experience had been accumulated.
A well-known drawback of the approved financial analysis methodology is the impossibility of its correct application in relation to entities that do not prepare standardized financial statements, primarily individuals - individual entrepreneurs and citizens in respect of whom a bankruptcy case is being considered. Particular interest in financial analysis in the absence of conventional financial statements arose in 2015 after the entry into force legal norms legislation on bankruptcy of citizens, according to which the obligation of the financial manager to conduct an analysis of the financial condition of the citizen is established [Federal Law 2002, Art. 213.9, paragraph 8]. Thus, at present there is no methodology and practice for correctly solving the problem of financial analysis when there is no data in the form of ordinary financial statements.
The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for analyzing the financial condition of citizens, including individual entrepreneurs who do not prepare financial statements, which would be as close as possible to the approaches used in relation to organizations.
For the sake of convenience of presentation, we first develop general approaches to the analysis of financial indicators and ratios, the application of which does not require standard accounting reporting, for example, in relation to an individual entrepreneur if he uses a simplified taxation system. This technique can be used both in case of initiation of bankruptcy proceedings and outside of bankruptcy procedures. The application of the developed methodology for analyzing the financial condition of citizens in bankruptcy procedures is also shown.
Development of analysis methods
The practice of applying methods of ratio analysis of organizations shows that for most purposes of analysis, including the study of solvency, profitability, financial stability, it is sufficient
a relatively small number of initial indicators. Among them are the amount of the organization's obligations, the amount of its assets, including claims against other persons, the amount of assets that can be sold to pay off obligations, the amount of income and expenses of the organization for certain periods of time. To obtain information about them, it is not necessary to have financial statements of the established form. Economic entities, organizations and individual entrepreneurs must pass state registration, carry out their business operations using accounts in credit institutions, register ownership rights to real estate in accordance with the established procedure, and vehicles, transactions, submit tax returns. Based on this information, it is possible to generate information about the main indicators of the activity and condition of an economic entity (hereinafter also the object of analysis) without standard forms of balance sheet and financial statements. financial results.
Below are the basic indicators of any business entity and possible ways obtain them in case of absence of financial statements or impossibility of using them.
The amount of assets of the object of analysis A is determined in rubles as the sum of the value of all property of the object of analysis, including rights of claim against other persons, as well as funds in accounts with credit institutions. The following data is required:
Inventory of property items belonging to the object of analysis as an economic unit;
Information on agreements with other persons, according to which funds should be transferred to the accounts of the analyzed object;
Bank statements for all accounts indicating balances as of the date of analysis. Based on agreements with other persons, it is possible to determine the rights of claims against them, and according to bank statements, the funds available to the object of analysis. Only assessing the value of property based on its inventory can be relatively problematic, for which you need to know the basics of property valuation. The presentation of assessment methods is not the subject of this article. The basics of assessment activities can be found in the relevant literature [Fundamentals of Assessment, 2010].
Summarizing the value of property items, funds in the accounts of the object of analysis
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and his rights of claim to other persons, we obtain indicator A. An increase or decrease in indicator A characterizes a change in the scale of the property status of the object of analysis and formally determines the conditional amount of liabilities of the object of analysis, since the sum of assets is equal to the sum of the sources of their formation (liabilities).
the amount of assets of the object of analysis, without which its functioning An is impossible, is determined in rubles by adding the value of all items of property of the object of analysis that are directly involved in economic activities (real estate, means of production, vehicles, computer equipment, etc.). To determine the indicator, the data that was used to determine the total amount of assets of A is sufficient.
It is advisable to first examine the economic activity of the object of analysis and identify those items of property and assets that can be sold without prejudice to the continuation of the activity. The experience of such an analysis for organizations shows that assets that are not used in the main activity and can be sold should include rights of claim to other persons and funds of the object of analysis. Inclusion or non-inclusion in this group material objects depends on the specifics of the activity of the object of analysis. For example, this group will include passenger cars, except in the case where the economic activity of the object of analysis is related to transportation by passenger vehicles. The remaining assets will form the required amount An.
the amount of liabilities £ of the object of analysis is determined by summing up all its liabilities, including liabilities to other enterprises and persons, credit institutions
Synthesized balance sheet of assets and liabilities of the object of analysis
Own
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obligations
Amount of assets
Amount of liabilities B
tions, personnel and mandatory payments (taxes and contributions). To determine this indicator you need:
Information on contracts, according to which the object of analysis assumed obligations to other business entities and persons;
Information about taxes and contributions payable.
An increase or decrease in value indicates a change in the debt of the analyzed object to other persons. When studying the dynamics of liabilities, the following may be required: analysis of individual components of the amount of liabilities, division and analysis of liabilities into long-term and short-term, inclusion of issued security obligations and payments in the liabilities. All this data can be obtained by analyzing the terms of contracts concluded by the object of analysis, their terms and conditions.
the amount of net assets Ah is calculated as the difference between the amount of assets and the amount of liabilities of the object of analysis.
Ah = A - 5 (1)
This indicator also characterizes the notional amount of own sources of financing assets and the dependence of the object of analysis on third-party sources of financing.
The considered indicators characterize the amounts of assets and liabilities, make it possible to synthesize the structure of the conditional balance sheet of assets and liabilities of the object of analysis (Fig. 1a), as well as to highlight that part of the assets that is formed from its own sources of formation. If the amount of liabilities exceeds the amount of assets (Fig. 1b), all own sources are lost in losses.
the amount of uncovered losses, if liabilities exceed the assets of the object of analysis, b is determined taking into account the condition of ensuring a balance of assets and the sources of their formation (see figure on the right):
L = (5 -A)/ 2 (2)
the total income of the object for the analyzed period I, which takes into account all the income of the object of analysis received, for example, for the previous year (or for the quarter, month). For a citizen (see below), periodic payments (salary, pension, scholarship, etc.) are also added. The dynamics of indicator I characterizes the change in the payment capabilities of the object of analysis.
the total expenses of the object for the analyzed period E are determined by adding all the expenses of the object of analysis for the same period for which income I is determined. The source of information is
calculations for income and expenses received may be tax return object of analysis and/or bank statements for account transactions. Organizations and individual entrepreneurs are required to prepare a tax return and submit it to tax authorities, conduct your operations through credit institutions. Below we show how to determine indicators for individuals who are not individual entrepreneurs.
Profit (loss) from the activity of the object of analysis B is defined as the difference between the total income and the corresponding expenses of the object of analysis:
This indicator represents the amount Money, which remains at the disposal of the object of analysis after all distractions, including production and commercial expenses, interest payments on loans and other payments, as well as taxes, and characterizes the ability to form its own sources of financing its activities.
Based on the above indicators, it is possible to construct and calculate a number of financial ratios (relative indicators), similar to the ratios used for financial analysis of organizations. Of course, the approaches under consideration do not allow us to generate the same coefficients as when using financial statements. In the analysis, coefficients are used to reflect the properties of the financial activities and financial condition of the object of analysis: financial stability, solvency, liquidity, etc. The proposed indicators make it possible to achieve this goal without the use of financial statements. In connection with this indicators of financial condition, names are given similar to those used in the mentioned “Rules.” [Ordinance 2003].
The profitability of an activity is calculated as the ratio of profit (loss) from an activity to total income.
R = D/I = (I - E)/1. (4)
In general, the profitability indicator characterizes the final financial result as a share of total income. When multiplying the result by 100, we obtain the profitability of the activity as a percentage of the amount of income.
the degree of solvency is calculated as the ratio of the obligations of the object of analysis to its income. This indicator is analogous to the degree of general solvency (see, for example: [Kovan S. E., Mokrova L. P., Ryakhovskaya A. N., 2009, p. 67]).
W = S / (I / 12)
You can also use the average income values of the object of analysis in the denominator of the indicator. In particular, total income for the year divided by 12 is substituted into formula (5), so that the degree of solvency is measured in months. This coefficient characterizes the ability of the object of analysis to meet its obligations at the expense of its income.
Coefficient current liquidity is calculated as the ratio of assets that can be sold to pay off obligations without losing the ability to operate the object of analysis to its liabilities. Ktl = (A-An) / & (6)
Assets that can be sold to pay off obligations are defined as the difference between the total amount of assets A and the amount of assets without which the functioning of An is impossible. This indicator characterizes the ability of the object of analysis to meet its obligations at the expense of its property.
The coefficient of financial independence (autonomy) is calculated as the ratio of assets not encumbered with liabilities (net assets) to the amount of assets of the object of analysis. Kf.n = Ah /A = (A - & / A. (7)
The indicator characterizes the share of assets generated from own sources. The design of this coefficient is illustrated in Fig. 1a.
A limited range of financial condition ratios (four in total) allows for a fairly meaningful analysis of the financial condition from various positions and reflects the properties of profitability, solvency due to liquid assets and due to current activities, as well as the degree of independence of these activities from borrowed resources (creditors).
Let's consider an example of analyzing the financial condition of an economic entity in the absence of financial statements. For the analysis, information was collected as of the end of 2015:
The list of property of the object of analysis, registered in the prescribed manner, which contains five items with a total estimated value of 3.4 million rubles, is not directly involved in production activities a car worth 0.7 million rubles;
Statement of the bank account as of the reporting date, the cash balance is 0.03 million rubles;
A register of contracts concluded with other persons, according to which the object of analysis at the reporting date has:
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on the right of claims against other persons in the amount of 2 million rubles,
o liabilities in relation to other persons in the amount of 2.4 million rubles, while liabilities on loans taken as part of the total amount of liabilities amount to 2.1 million rubles, all liabilities are short-term with maturities of less than a year. tax return for the 2015 reporting year, according to which the amount of income of the object of analysis amounted to 2.8 million rubles, and the amount of expenses for the same period - 2.1 million rubles. It is necessary to analyze the financial condition of the object as of the current date and formulate a conclusion about its financial condition. In accordance with the presented data, indicators and coefficients of the financial condition of the object of analysis were calculated (see table).
The activity of the object of analysis is profitable. Revenues for the analyzed period exceed costs. The profitability ratio was 25%, i.e., per ruble of income the facility has about 25 kopecks of profit left at its disposal.
Solvency indicators are contradictory. The degree of solvency is 10.3 months. All obligations of the object of analysis are short-term. Therefore, due to
Indicators and ratios of financial condition
Indicator Calculation formula Value
Amount of assets, million rubles. A 3.4+2.0+0.03= 5.43
The amount of assets without which its functioning is impossible, million rubles. An 5.43-0.7-2.0-0.03 = 2.7
Amount of liabilities, million rubles. & 2.4
Amount of net assets, million rubles. Ah = A- & 5.43-2.40 = 3.03
Total income for the analyzed period, million rubles. I 2.8
Total expenses for the analyzed period, million rubles. E 2.1
Profit (loss) from activities, million rubles. P = I - E 2.8-2.1 = 0.7
Profitability of activities R = P / I 0.7 / 2.8 = 0.25
Degree of solvency, months. C= &/ (I/ 12) 2.4 / (2.8 / 12) = 10.3
Current liquidity ratio Ktl = (A - An) / & (5.43-2.7) / 2.4 = 1.1
Coefficient of financial independence (autonomy) Kfn = Ah / A 3.03 / 5.43 = 0.56
current activities, the analyzed business entity cannot ensure the timely repayment of all existing obligations within the established time frame (no more than three months).
The current ratio is 1.1, which means that the object of analysis has enough assets not directly involved in production activities to cover its liabilities.
The solvency of the object of analysis is ensured by the excess of liquid assets over short-term liabilities.
The financial independence coefficient is 0.56, or 56% of the assets of the object of analysis are formed from its own funds. The remaining assets are formed from liabilities, which are 88% (2100/2400) loans. These facts indicate a significant dependence of the activity of the object of analysis on external financing.
The considered example shows that the proposed methodology allows us to characterize the current financial condition of the object of analysis. If similar information is available for other periods, you can track changes in the financial condition of the object.
Financial analysis in bankruptcy procedures of citizens
The presented approach can be used to analyze the financial condition of a citizen if a bankruptcy case has been initiated against him. Analysis of a citizen’s financial condition has its own specifics, which prevents the direct and correct application of the “Rules.” In any case, it is necessary to conduct an analysis, first of all, in order to determine whether it is possible or not to restore the solvency of a debtor citizen and introduce the most appropriate procedure in relation to him. This general duty arbitration manager, who in bankruptcy procedures for citizens is called a financial manager.
The analysis conducted in bankruptcy proceedings will be somewhat different from financial analysis outside of bankruptcy proceedings. It has already been noted in the introduction to this article that, in accordance with the Rules, there are four main areas of financial analysis of the debtor, which are given at the beginning of this article. A presentation of the basics of analysis in all these areas for organizations can be found in the literature [Kovan S. E., 2009].
Let us consider sequentially the features of solving analysis problems for a citizen-debtor in a bankruptcy case.
Analysis of financial indicators and ratios. The profitability, solvency and financial stability of the object of analysis are examined [Resolution 2003]. All these
properties can be analyzed using the approaches outlined above, but taking into account important features individual as an object of financial analysis.
When a citizen files an application for bankruptcy, documents are attached to the application that disclose his financial situation [Federal Law 2002, Art. 213.4]:
Inventory of property;
Amounts payable and accounts receivable and corresponding lists of debtors and creditors;
Bank certificates about the availability of deposits and cash balances in accounts;
Information on income received and tax amounts withheld for three years;
Other information.
The listed data allows you to calculate most of the indicators and coefficients presented in this article. If the application is submitted by a citizen’s creditor, the necessary data for analysis is the financial manager appointed arbitration court to carry out the bankruptcy procedure of a citizen-debtor, may request from the debtor himself.
The amount of A's assets is determined using the property inventory data at its estimated value. The amount of obligations 5 is determined by summing up the obligations based on information about accounts payable to other persons, debts on loans received from banks, tax and other payments.
Total income I is calculated on the basis of information provided by the citizen about his income for three years. You should pay attention to periodic income (salary, pension, scholarship, etc.), as well as interest on bank deposits debtor, if any.
Most indicators and coefficients can be calculated as shown above. Below we consider the specifics characteristic of only two indicators.
the amount of assets of the object of analysis, without which its functioning is impossible, An. In relation to a citizen, assets, without which the functioning of an economic entity is impossible, must be replaced with assets that should not be included in bankruptcy estate- property sold to pay off debts. The laws define the composition of property that cannot be alienated from a citizen and his family: residential premises, if it is the only one suitable for living, land plot, where this room is located, home furnishings and household items, personal belongings
for public use (clothes, shoes, etc.), etc. [Federal Law 2002, Art. 213.25; Civil Procedural Code 2002, art. 446]. Thus, the amount of assets that are not subject to sale An is determined by the financial manager on the basis of an inventory of property, explanations of the citizen, taking into account the requirements of legal documents.
total expenses for the analyzed period E. The study of a citizen’s real total expenses is a complex task, which most often does not have an acceptable solution. Unlike business entities, when spending their funds, citizens are not required to use accounts opened with credit institutions. It is also impossible to determine what expenses are necessary to support the life of a citizen and his family, and what expenses are not justified in a crisis situation that preceded the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings.
To estimate the minimum necessary expenses of a citizen, we suggest focusing on the subsistence level. The cost of living is a valuation of the consumer basket, as well as the necessary expenses for obligatory payments(taxes, Communal expenses etc.) and fees. The subsistence minimum is established quarterly by the Government of the Russian Federation for the country as a whole [Federal Law 1997]. For certain regions, the living wage is determined by the legislative (representative) bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. For example, the cost of living for the 4th quarter of 2015 in Moscow per capita is 14,413 rubles, for the working population - 16,438 rubles, for pensioners - 10,227 rubles, for children - 12,437 rubles. [Resolution 2016]. Similar data can be found for other regions.
The consumer basket includes a minimum set of food products, as well as non-food products and services, the cost of which is determined in relation to the cost of the minimum set of food products necessary to maintain human health and ensure his life. The cost of living is calculated quarterly both on average per capita and separately for able-bodied citizens, pensioners, teenagers and children.
The minimum required total expenses Et1P of a citizen can be calculated taking into account the cost of living, place of residence, social status, presence of dependents, etc. This information can be considered as
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the minimum necessary expenses to support the life of a citizen and his family. When implementing a bankruptcy procedure, a citizen must have at least the appropriate income (if possible, inflation should be taken into account):
E =1 Chip -"tt-
Thus, all basic indicators have been determined. The remaining indicators and coefficients are calculated based on the basic indicators (see table). Taking into account the specifics of the object of analysis, it is worth clarifying individual indicators.
When we're talking about about a citizen, instead of the “profit” indicator, it is worth using the term “financial resource”:
Р = Р= I-1т1п, (8)
where P is a financial resource; I is the total income of a citizen during the period under study; - the minimum required subsistence level for a citizen during the period under study.
Instead of the name “current ratio”, it is advisable to use the term “coverage ratio” (see formula (6)). The economic meaning remains the same: the indicator determines what part of a citizen’s debts can be repaid without harming the life of the citizen and his family.
The obligation of the arbitration manager has been established to conduct an analysis of the financial situation for at least two years preceding the initiation of insolvency proceedings [Resolution 2003]. IN Everyday life Citizens are not required to draw up and keep documents defining the details of their property status, so difficulties may arise in determining the indicator in question. You can track changes in property objects that are subject to registration in government agencies(real estate, vehicles), according to statements from bank accounts and transactions on them.
Analysis of the economic, investment and financial activities of the debtor. For organizations, the main task of this section of the analysis is to establish whether, in the current internal and external conditions, an economic entity, conducting its activities and taking measures to restore solvency (for example, selling property), can earn money that will allow it to pay off its debts. Having studied the current conditions and features of the debtor’s property status, it is necessary to determine whether the debtor has periodic income, their forecast values for future periods, whether it is possible to sell objects of his property, at what prices, etc.
Analysis of the debtor's assets and liabilities. This type of analysis appears to be the least different from analysis for organizations. A citizen’s assets are determined based on the inventory of property, lists of debtors to whom the citizen has rights of claim, their debts, information about cash balances in the citizen’s bank accounts. In a similar way, assets An that cannot be sold and assets that can be used to pay off a citizen’s debts (A - An) can be determined. Thus, the citizen’s financial resource is determined to pay off debts from existing property.
Liabilities represent the obligations of a citizen towards other persons. IN in this case you will need a list of creditors and information about the amounts of their accounts payable, information about debt to credit organizations, on taxes and fees. The amount of obligations 5 is determined at the stage of analysis of indicators.
Analysis of the possibility of operating at a break-even level. In relation to individuals, there is no clear definition of what is considered profit and what is considered justified necessary expenses. The corresponding section of the “Rules” [Resolution 2003] also cannot be directly implemented to analyze the financial condition of citizens. To calculate the financial resource (see formula (8)) remaining at the disposal of a citizen, without compromising the satisfaction of his minimum necessary needs, a subsistence minimum has been proposed. A financial resource can be considered as an analogue of profit.
The results obtained during the analysis in four areas are used to make economically sound decisions in a citizen’s bankruptcy case. In particular, the arbitration manager appointed by the court must propose the most appropriate procedure from among the procedures applied in a bankruptcy case [Resolution 2003]. It is possible to introduce debt restructuring, sale of property and a settlement agreement [Federal Law 2002, Art. 213.2]. During the analysis, the arbitration manager can find out whether there are economic grounds for creditors to make a particular decision on the procedure that is supposed to be introduced. Currently, the main task of a financial manager is
justification for the possibility (or impossibility) of restructuring a citizen’s debts within the established time frame - within three years [Federal Law 2002, Art. 213.14]. Due to this special meaning acquires a financial resource (formula (8)). If the financial resource is greater than zero, then the citizen has income that covers the minimum needs of him and his family and allows him to accumulate financial resources to repay existing debts. Consequently, there are formal grounds for debt restructuring, since the reality of restructuring is determined based on the size of the positive balance in comparison with the creditors’ claims submitted for repayment.
Debt amounts not covered by accumulated financial resources during restructuring can be repaid through the sale of part of the citizen’s property (A - An).
In the absence of a positive financial resource, the introduction of debt restructuring is impractical, since the citizen does not even have the ability to cover minimal needs from sources of income. In this case, only options for selling the property or a settlement agreement can be considered. Let's give two simple examples.
Example 1. Bankruptcy proceedings have been initiated against citizen N. The amount of the citizen’s obligations is 11.3 million rubles. The average level of annual income I for the last two years is 2.9 million rubles.
The minimum required level of expenses in accordance with the subsistence level for Last year- 0.34 million rubles. Citizen N. owns property worth 8.2 million rubles that can be sold. The refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia on the date of introduction of the bankruptcy procedure is 11%.
Task. Form a well-founded position regarding the debt restructuring procedure.
1 year: 8.2 + (2.9-0.34) = 10.76 million rubles.
2 years: 8.2 + (2.9 x 2-0.34 x 2) = 13.32 million rubles.
3 years: 8.2 + (2.9 x 3-0.34 x 3) = 15.88 million rubles.
For the possible restructuring period, the total amount of debt, including interest,
which are charged in the amount of the refinancing rate established Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the date of approval of the plan for restructuring a citizen’s debts [Federal Law 2002, Art. 213.19], may amount to:
1 year: 11.3 + 11.3 x 0.11 = 12.543 million rubles.
2 years: 11.3 + 11.3 x (2 x 0.11) = 13.786 million rubles.
3 years: 11.3 + 11.3 x (3 x 0.11) = 15.029 million rubles.
If we compare the debts to be repaid and the amounts that can be used to repay them in different periods, within three years of debt restructuring, resources sufficient to cover the debt, taking into account the increase in the amount of accrued interest, can be accumulated.
The debt restructuring procedure is financially justified. The appropriate restructuring period is three years.
Example 2. Bankruptcy proceedings have been initiated against citizen K. The amount of liabilities is 8.4 million rubles. The average annual income for the last two years was 1.35 million rubles. Over the past year, the minimum required level of expenses in accordance with the subsistence level was 0.24 million rubles. Citizen K. owns property valued at 5.6 million rubles that can be sold. The refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia on the date of introduction of the bankruptcy procedure is 11%.
Task. Form a well-founded position regarding the debt restructuring procedure.
Solution. Taking into account the possible sale of the debtor’s property and the preservation of minimal required level expenses of a citizen (without compensation for inflationary growth of the cost of living) for a possible period of debt restructuring, the total amount that can be used to repay the debt during the restructuring is:
1 year: 5.6 + (1.35-0.24) = 6.71 million rubles.
2 years: 5.6 + (1.35 x 2-0.24 x 2) = 7.82 million rubles.
3 years: 5.6 + (1.35 x 3-0.24 x 3) = 8.93 million rubles.
Taking into account interest that is accrued in the amount of the refinancing rate established by the Bank of Russia for a possible restructuring period, the total amount of debt may be:
1 year: 8.4 + 8.4 x 0.11 = 9.324 million rubles.
2 years: 8.4 + 8.4 x (2 x 0.11) = 10.248 million rubles.
3 years: 8.4 + 8.4 x (3 x 0.11) = 11.172 million rubles.
Thus, within three years, when debt restructuring is possible, a citizen’s income, taking into account the value of property suitable for sale, does not exceed the debt,
_"effective anti-crisis management"
to be covered. Introducing a restructuring procedure is inappropriate.
If it is impossible to conclude a settlement agreement with creditors, the only procedure remains the sale of the property of the debtor citizen.
Conclusion
The article proposes a universal approach to financial analysis, which allows for analysis even in cases where the object of analysis does not generate conventional financial statements - a balance sheet and a statement of financial results. Basic data are used as initial data for analysis. financial indicators economic entities whose existence is not related to the preparation of financial statements. Among the basic indicators is the value of the property (assets) of the object of analysis, including rights of claim against other persons, income and expenses for the analyzed period, the amount of obligations to other persons. Based on the specified information, characteristic of the activities of legal entities and individuals, financial indicators were constructed similar to those that are usually used when conducting financial ratios.
analysis and are reflected in the relevant educational and methodological literature.
The set of developed indicators allows us to get an idea of the profitability of activities, liquidity of property, solvency and financial stability of the object of analysis. In many cases, this will be sufficient to meet the requirements for the results of coefficient analysis.
The versatility and independence from the formal availability of accounting statements made it possible to develop a general methodology for the financial analysis of citizens in bankruptcy procedures. The features of the analysis in accordance with the requirements of bankruptcy legislation are considered. In addition, recommendations are presented on how to apply the developed approach to analysis that is as close as possible to the requirements of the “Rules...” established for arbitration managers.
The author expresses gratitude to Valeria Valerievna Merzlova, arbitration manager of the Association “Interregional Self-Regulatory Organization of Professional Arbitration Managers”, for useful comments made when reviewing the manuscript of this article.
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Nick. pp. 37-104.
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www.fedstat.ru/indicator/description.do?id=30957&referrerType=0&referrerId=1292857p.
3. Civil Procedure Code of the Russian Federation" dated November 14, 2002 No. 138-F3 (as amended on December 30, 2015) (as amended and supplemented,
entry in force from 01/01/2016) // Consultant Plus. URL: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_39570/.
4. Kovalev V.V., Kovalev Vit. V. (2012) Balance sheet analysis, or How to understand balance. 3rd ed., revised. and additional M.: Prospekt. 560 pp.
5. Kovan s. E. (2009) Prevention of bankruptcy of organizations. M.: Infra-M. pp. 49-52.
6. Kovan s. E., Mokrova L. P., Ryakhovskaya A. n. (2009) Theory of crisis management: Textbook. village/ Ed. M. A. Fedoto-
howl, A. N. Ryakhovskaya. M.: Knorus. pp. 63-76.
7. Basics of assessing the value of property. (2010) / Ed. M. A. Fedotova, T. V. Tazikhina. M.: Knorus. 272 pp.
8. Decree of the Moscow Government dated March 16, 2016 No. 81-PP “On establishing the minimum subsistence level”
muma in the city of Moscow for the IV quarter of 2015" // Consultant Plus. URL: http://base.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online. cgi?req=doc;base=MLAW;n=168788.
9. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 25, 2003 No. 367 “On approval of the Rules for conducting
financial analysis" // Consultant Plus. URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_42901/.
10. Order of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated 07/02/2010 No. 66n (as amended on 04/06/2015) “On the forms of financial statements of organizations” // Consultant Plus. URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_103394/.
11. Federal Law of October 24, 1997 No. 134-FZ (as amended on December 3, 2012) “On living wage in the Russian Federation" // Consultant Plus. URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_16565/.
12. Federal Law of October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ (as amended on December 29, 2015) “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)” (as amended and supplemented, entered into force on March 29, 2016) // Consultant Plus. URL: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_39331/.
Before making a decision to declare a debtor bankrupt, the enterprise introduces a monitoring procedure applied to the debtor in order to ensure the safety of property, conduct an analysis of the financial condition, compile a register of creditors' claims and hold the first meeting of creditors. Thus, one of the main tasks in the monitoring procedure is to analyze the financial condition of the enterprise and draw a conclusion about the possibility (impossibility) of restoring solvency to decide the future fate of the debtor.
If the meeting of creditors, based on the analysis, decides to restore the debtor’s solvency, then financial recovery procedure or external control . If during the observation it is revealed that it is impossible to restore solvency or as a result of anti-crisis procedures it was not possible to achieve the desired parameters, the final procedure is introduced - bankruptcy proceedings.
Target bankruptcy proceedings - sell the debtor’s property and satisfy the claims of creditors to the extent possible from the point of view of law. Completion of bankruptcy proceedings leads to the liquidation of the debtor - legal entity and termination of all his obligations.
Note. An analysis of the debtor's financial condition is carried out in order to determine the value of the property owned by the debtor to cover legal costs, the cost of paying remuneration to the arbitration managers, as well as to determine the possibility (impossibility) of restoring the debtor's solvency and justify the feasibility of introducing subsequent bankruptcy procedures.
Let us analyze the financial condition of a bankrupt using the example of Berezovskoye LLC (a logging enterprise), where a monitoring procedure was introduced in 2011.
Note. General analysis the financial condition of the enterprise begins with determining changes in the value of property and the total amount of sources of its formation in dynamics, that is, comparing these indicators in value terms at the beginning and end of the reporting period.
Also compare different kinds assets and sources of their formation in dynamics. Ultimately, they evaluate how quantitative and structural changes in the enterprise’s property and sources of formation affected its financial position. It is more convenient to analyze the balance in an aggregated (enlarged) form (Table 1).
|
Table 1. Aggregated balance sheet of Berezovskoye LLC, thousand rubles. |
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|
Index |
01.01.2008 |
01.01.2009 |
01.01.2010 |
01.01.2011 |
01.04.2011 |
Changes |
|
|
Assets |
|||||||
|
Fixed assets | |||||||
|
Current assets | |||||||
|
Including: | |||||||
|
VAT on purchased materials | |||||||
|
accounts receivable | |||||||
|
cash | |||||||
|
Other current assets | |||||||
|
Balance |
–58 614 |
||||||
|
Liabilities |
|||||||
|
Capital and reserves | |||||||
|
Long-term liabilities | |||||||
|
Short-term liabilities | |||||||
|
Including: credits and loans | |||||||
|
accounts payable | |||||||
|
other current liabilities | |||||||
|
Balance |
–58 614 |
||||||
As a result of the analysis of the enterprise’s balance sheet, the following conclusions can be drawn:
- the balance sheet currency for the period from 01/01/2008 to 04/01/2011 decreased by 58,614 thousand rubles, the decrease occurred at an unequal pace;
- non-current assets decreased by 20,343 thousand rubles, the cost of inventories for the entire analyzed period - by 5,624 thousand rubles, accounts receivable - by 32,667 thousand rubles; at the same time, accounts payable increased by 90,156 thousand rubles, and capital and reserves decreased by 148,514 thousand rubles;
- the value of other balance sheet components for the entire period did not undergo significant changes.
Preliminary conclusions of the balance sheet analysis indicate that Berezovskoye LLC did not have its own funds during the entire analyzed period.
Liquidity ratio
One of the methods for analyzing the solvency of an enterprise is to assess the liquidity of the balance sheet. Balance sheet liquidity is defined as the degree to which the enterprise's liabilities are covered by its assets, the period of transformation of which into monetary form corresponds to the maturity date of the obligations.
Balance sheet liquidity analysis is carried out by comparing funds for an asset, grouped by the degree of their liquidity and arranged in descending order, with liabilities for a liability, grouped by their maturity and arranged in ascending order.
Depending on the rate of conversion into cash (that is, the degree of liquidity) enterprise assets are divided into the following groups:
- A1- the most liquid assets. This group includes cash at the enterprise’s cash desk, in settlement, currency and other bank accounts and short-term financial investments in securities;
- A2- quickly realizable assets. These include goods shipped, accounts receivable and other current assets;
- A3- slow-moving assets: raw materials, materials and other valuables; animals for growing and fattening; costs in work in progress; finished products and goods for resale; VAT; long-term financial investments in securities; loans provided to other enterprises for a period of more than 12 months;
- A4- hard-to-sell assets: intangible assets; fixed assets; Construction in progress; long-term financial investments in the authorized capital of other enterprises.
Balance Liabilities are grouped according to the degree of urgency of their payment in the following order:
- P1- the most urgent obligations: accounts payable; loans not repaid on time;
- P2- short-term liabilities: short-term loans and borrowings, with the exception of those not repaid on time;
- P3- long-term liabilities: long-term loans and borrowings, with the exception of those not repaid on time;
- P4- permanent liabilities: sources of own funds, excluding losses and deferred expenses.
To determine the liquidity of the balance sheet, you should compare the results of the above groups for assets and liabilities. The balance is considered absolutely liquid if the following inequalities are met:
If one or more inequalities have the opposite sign optimal option, then the liquidity of the balance sheet is considered unsatisfactory to a greater or lesser extent.
Let us group assets by degree of liquidity in accordance with the specified methodology for Berezovskoye LLC (Table 2).
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Table 2. Grouping of assets by degree of liquidity, liabilities - by maturity of Berezovskoye LLC, thousand rubles. |
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Period |
01.01.2008 |
01.01.2009 |
01.01.2010 |
01.01.2011 |
01.04.2011 |
|
Absolutely liquid assets | |||||
|
Quick assets | |||||
|
Hard-to-liquid assets | |||||
|
Fixed assets | |||||
|
Asset balance | |||||
|
Current liabilities | |||||
|
Short-term liabilities | |||||
|
Long-term liabilities | |||||
|
Permanent liabilities | |||||
|
Liability balance | |||||
The structure and dynamics of the grouped balance are presented in table. 3.
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Table 3. Structure and dynamics of the grouped balance sheet of Berezovskoye LLC |
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Group of balance sheet items |
Absolute value, thousand rubles. |
Share, % |
Change |
|||
|
01.01.08 |
01.04.11 |
01.01.08 |
01.04.11 |
absolute, thousand rubles |
relative, % |
|
|
Absolutely liquid assets | ||||||
|
Quick assets | ||||||
|
Hard-to-liquid assets | ||||||
|
Fixed assets | ||||||
|
Asset balance |
–58 614 | |||||
|
Current liabilities | ||||||
|
Short-term liabilities | ||||||
|
Long-term liabilities | ||||||
|
Permanent liabilities | ||||||
|
Liability balance |
–58 614 | |||||
During the analyzed period, the following occurred in the structure of assets and liabilities: changes:
- the share of quick-liquid and hard-to-liquid assets has decreased;
- the share outside has increased current assets;
- the share of permanent liabilities decreased significantly (losses increased);
- the share of current liabilities increased significantly.
Analysis of the structure of the enterprise's assets by the degree of liquidity and liabilities by the degree of urgency indicates a chronic lack of funds of the enterprise to repay current obligations and a lack of funds in the future to repay both short-term and long-term obligations.
After analyzing the balance sheet of the enterprise, an analysis of the financial condition is carried out based on the coefficients of financial and economic activity. The Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated June 25, 2003 No. 367 “On approval of the Rules for conducting financial analysis by arbitration managers” established an official system of criteria for assessing the insolvency of an enterprise, consisting of the following groupscoefficients:
- characterizing the liquidity of the debtor;
- characterizing the financial stability of the debtor;
- characterizing the business activity of the debtor.
The coefficients characterizing the liquidity of Berezovskoye LLC are presented in table. 4.
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Table 4. Ratios characterizing the liquidity of Berezovskoye LLC |
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Liquidity ratio |
index |
Period |
||||
|
01.01.08 |
01.01.09 |
01.01.10 |
01.01.11 |
01.04.11 |
||
|
Coverage ratio | ||||||
|
Quick ratio | ||||||
|
Absolute liquidity ratio | ||||||
Type of odds
Coverage ratio- financial ratio equal to the ratio of current assets to short-term liabilities (current liabilities). The coverage ratio shows the organization's ability to pay off current (short-term) liabilities using only current assets. The higher the ratio, the better the solvency of the enterprise.
For Berezovskoye LLC, the coverage ratio does not meet the standard; its value is constantly decreasing. Consequently, the organization is not provided with working capital to conduct business activities and timely repay obligations.
Quick ratio equal to the ratio of highly liquid current assets to short-term liabilities (current liabilities). It is calculated like the coverage ratio, except that current assets do not include inventories.
Absolute liquidity ratio, which shows what part of short-term liabilities can be repaid immediately and is calculated as the ratio of the most liquid current assets (cash and short-term financial investments) to the current obligations of the debtor, at the enterprise under study has a value significantly different from the standard (it is practically equal to zero). Thus, only a small part of the obligations can be repaid as soon as possible.
Based on the analysis, we can conclude that none of the liquidity indicators meets the standards and all of them have negative dynamics.
The coefficients characterizing the financial stability of Berezovskoye LLC are presented in table. 5.
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Table 5. Coefficients characterizing the financial stability of Berezovskoye LLC |
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|
Sustainability indicator |
index |
Period |
Change |
||||
|
01.01.2008 |
01.01.2009 |
01.01.2010 |
01.01.2011 |
01.04.2011 |
|||
|
Provision ratio of own working capital | |||||||
|
Equity agility ratio | |||||||
|
Autonomy coefficient | |||||||
|
Debt to equity ratio | |||||||
Provision ratio of own working capital characterizes the presence of the enterprise's own working capital necessary for its financial stability. It is calculated as the ratio of own working capital (the difference between own capital and the value of non-current assets) to the total amount of working capital.
Maneuverability coefficient of own working capital shows what part of its own working capital is in circulation. This ratio is calculated as the ratio of own working capital to own sources of financing. In relation to Berezovskoye LLC, the value of this coefficient is incorrect, since both its own working capital and equity capital as a whole are negative values. Consequently, the calculated value of the maneuverability coefficient becomes overestimated.
Autonomy coefficient shows the share of the enterprise's assets that are provided by its own funds, and are calculated as the ratio of equity capital to the balance sheet currency.
Debt to equity ratio shows how much borrowed funds are available per 1 ruble. own funds. It is calculated as the ratio of long-term and short-term borrowed funds to the organization's equity capital. This coefficient for Berezovskoye LLC is also absolutely incorrect due to the fact that equity capital has a negative value.
As a result of the analysis, it was found that all coefficients characterizing the financial stability of Berezovskoye LLC either have an incorrect value or differ significantly (for the worse) from the standard value. This indicates the absolute financial instability of the enterprise.
Indicators characterizing the business activity of Berezovskoye LLC are presented in table. 6:
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Table 6. Indicators characterizing the business activity of Berezovskoye LLC |
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Period |
Change |
|||
|
Working capital turnover indicators |
||||
|
Volume of blanks, thousand m3 | ||||
|
Sales revenue, thousand rubles. | ||||
|
Average working capital balances, thousand rubles. | ||||
|
Turnover ratio | ||||
|
Duration of turnover in days | ||||
|
Working capital consolidation ratio | ||||
|
Accounts receivable turnover indicators |
||||
|
Average balances of accounts receivable, thousand rubles. | ||||
|
Accounts receivable turnover | ||||
|
Receivables repayment period | ||||
|
Share of accounts receivable in total volume working capital, % | ||||
|
Inventory turnover indicators |
||||
|
Average inventory balances, thousand rubles. | ||||
|
Inventory turnover | ||||
|
Duration of inventory turnover in days | ||||
From the table 6 it can be seen that during the period under study:
- volume activities in physical terms decreased by 142.6 thousand m3;
- revenue organization increased by 10,915 thousand rubles. (therefore, the growth was inflationary in nature);
- working capital turnover ratio, which shows how many revolutions the working capital made during the analyzed period (year), increased from a value of 0.63 to 0.84;
- working capital turnover period decreased from 578 days to 435 days.
A similar situation has developed with regard to inventory turnover (the dynamics are positive, but the value of the turnover period is too high).
Consolidation factor characterizes the average value of working capital per 1 ruble. volume of products sold. He is inverse indicator for working capital turnover.
In general, the enterprise has seen a positive trend in the value of working capital turnover, however, despite this, the period of turnover of working capital still remains catastrophically long:
- the receivables repayment period decreased from 442.56 days to 264.8 days, which is good dynamics;
- The average payment period for buyers for delivered products is almost 265 days and is unacceptable.
An analysis of business activity showed that at Berezovskoye LLC the turnover of working capital is at an extremely low level, but is trending toward acceleration.
Based on the ratio analysis, it follows that Berezovskoye LLC is illiquid and financially unstable.
To summarize the results of financial analysis, the bankruptcy manager needs to summarize the possibilities (impossibility) of the enterprise to restore its solvency and make a bankruptcy forecast.
Altman model
There are many methods by which the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises is assessed, the most popular of which is Altman model. This is one of the simplest and most visual methods for predicting the likelihood of bankruptcy, when using it it is necessary to calculate the influence of only two indicators:
- coverage ratio;
- the share of borrowed funds in liabilities.
Formula Altman model has the form:
Z = –0.3877 – 1.0736 × Kp + 0.579 × (ZK / P),
where Kp is the coverage coefficient;
ZK - borrowed capital;
P - liabilities.
If the value Z > 0, the situation in the analyzed company is critical, the probability of bankruptcy is high.
For Berezovskoye LLC, the Altman model coefficient will have the following value:
Z = –0.3877 – 1.0736 × 0.097 + 0.579 × (217,822 / 40,025) = 2.66.
Berezovskoye LLC does not have the opportunity to restore its solvency and is facing bankruptcy.
One of functions of an arbitration manager which he must perform in the process of financial analysis is an assessment of the sufficiency of the debtor’s property to cover legal costs and remuneration of the arbitration manager.
To do this, it is necessary to bring the value of the debtor’s property, which can be sold, to market value using valuation coefficients (Table 7).
|
Table 7. Market value of the property of Berezovskoye LLC |
|||
|
Asset name |
Balance sheet value, thousand rubles. |
Market value ratio |
Sales value, thousand rubles. |
|
Fixed assets | |||
|
Accounts receivable | |||
|
Total |
39 929,0 |
24 337,8 |
|
Thus, market price property on the balance sheet of Berezovskoye LLC is 24,337.8 thousand rubles. This amount must be compared with the planned legal costs and the amount of remuneration of the arbitration manager for the entire period of bankruptcy proceedings, and a conclusion must be drawn as to whether there will be enough funds to cover them.